The bookies are rarely wrong, right?
Well, that’s almost true. The big firms certainly don’t make many mistakes, which is why they’re all multi-million-pound businesses.
Even when they do get things wrong, they make sure they’re covered. For example, if you believed the publicity, Leicester’s 5,000-1 title win last season was a real bashing for the bookies.
Give over. First of all, most bookies weren’t offering a price that generous and, most importantly, the few bets they paid out at those odds, would have been more than covered by the amount lost on sensible punters backing the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal, Man United, Chelsea and Man City.
When it comes to pricing markets like that, bookies are well-oiled machines, with teams of statisticians and computer models to compile their odds.
But where it gets a bit trickier for them is on special markets such as manager and transfer betting – and this is where in-depth knowledge about Liverpool can give punters an advantage.
Special markets are a real dilemma for bookies. Punters love them and it’s a good way of generating a bit of publicity but these markets are incredibly difficult to price properly.
This is one of the reasons you’ll find your maximum stake restricted – the bookies hate the thought they you know more than them. Just like your average fan, the bookies only really know what they’re hearing in the press.
With all that in mind, when taking a look at special markets on Liverpool, we have to take these odds with a pinch of salt.
But, at this time of year, with the summer transfer window approaching, it makes for interesting reading.
SkyBet seem convinced that Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will leave Arsenal for Anfield this summer, with the Reds 4/7 favourites to sign the England midfielder. It’s 5/4 he stays at Arsenal and Liverpool’s nearest rivals in that market are Chelsea at 14/1.
It wouldn’t be a summer transfer window without Liverpool signing someone from Southampton and there’s a couple of names in the frame.
Virgil van Dijk is 3/1 to move to Anfield, with Chelsea the 7/5 favourites. Man CIty are 9/2 – the same price as him staying with the Saints.
Liverpool are also mentioned in the market for Ryan Bertrand, who is 14/1 to move to Merseyside. Man City are favourites in that market at 14/1.
Liverpool are also favourites in the market to sign Demarai Gray from Leicester at 4/1. Tottenham are next at 12/1, or it’s 1/6 he stays at the King Power Stadium.
And what about players leaving? Well, Daniel Sturridge seems the most likely to depart and the England forward is 5/2 to head to West Ham, 9/2 to end up at PSG and 7/1 to go to Arsenal. Or, if you think he’ll stay with the Reds, that’s 5/4.
Special markets like this are arguably when they are most vulnerable.
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So, whether it’s using your superior knowledge of Liverpool, gut feeling or earning cash with with matched betting, there is plenty of proof that the bookies don’t always win.